Ranking the Survivor Seasons

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I’ve been meaning to do this for a while, but have never gotten around to it. Now that Rob Has a Podcast is doing an official fan poll and that there is a nice even 30 seasons, it feels right to give them a good ranking. Arguments are welcome, but please don’t hate.

30. Redemption Island

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There is something kinda neat about watching Boston Rob roll all over a group of mostly incompetent Survivor players, but boy most of it is awfully boring. There is an alternate version of this season where Phillip is out first and Mike Chiesl becomes an all time great, perhaps that would be more interesting. Add in the awful Redemption Island twist and yeah, this is the worst season.

29. All-Stars

I don’t hate Boston Rob, I really don’t–in fact he is usually the most interesting person in his seasons, but the way (when he is successful) he shuts down the rest of his competitors makes for awful television. This season is hurt by how personal it gets and the way the meta-game causes all of the interesting players (Tina, Rudy, Rob C., Richard) to go early while Jenna Lewis and Amber dominate.

28. One World

Kim is probably the best person to ever play Survivor, but this season is filled with duds–yes even upon their return Colton, Kat, and Monica remained duds. Even the slight opposition Kim faces is done in the most annoying form possible in “this is my island!” Troy Robertson. Sorry Kim, but I have no desire to rewatch this season at all.

27. South Pacific

Seasons 21-24 were the low point of Survivor history and season 23 showcased just how out of touch the producers were, bringing back the awful Redemption Island twist with two returning players we were less than slightly excited to see. Unlike Redemption Island there were a couple of bright spots in John Cochran’s wit and the huge turning point his flip caused, as well as the slayer of the dragonslayer herself in Sophie Clarke. But Coach’s cult, Brandon Hantz 1.0, and Rick just don’t do it for me.

26. Thailand

It’s hurt by so many of its people getting ignored throughout the future of Survivor, if Brian or Helen had had the chance to come back (as they should have) it probably gets remembered better. I think Brian is super entertaining and talented, but again the genius who runs over everyone doesn’t make for great TV.

25. Nicaragua

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Unlike most of the ones that have been ranked below it, this season is not dominated by one person, featuring quite a few twists and turns leading up to the ultimate surprise in a Fabio win (it is so scary that Chase comes within one vote of winning this thing). It’s a hard season to rate because it’s filled with good crazy (Holly and the shoes! Benry’s strange confessionals! Fabio’s slapstick moments) and annoying crazy (Naonka and Jane). Ultimately it rates lower, just because other seasons are just better.

24. Marquesas

Some people love this season, I guess that depends on having some sort of interest in people like Paschal, The General, Tammy, and Zoe; sorry but I find most of those people pretty boring to watch. While the downfall of John Carroll is epic, Kathy’s redemption arc is good, Sean is a legend, and Vecepia is fine as a winner, those people in between do a bad job of filling in the gaps.

23. Cook Islands

I’m back and forth on this season, I loved it at first because of Yul vs. Ozzy and Jonathan Penner. But on a further rewatch it didn’t do as much–Ozzy is great at challenges this first time, but he is awful socially. The weird early merge leaves a bad taste and Rebecca is probably the least memorable person to ever make jury. The twist was saved by the multicultural finals, but there is a moment where Jonathan Penner is saved twice over two people who were not white, despite nobody liking or trusting him–this could be because he was an original tribe member, but debating back and forth is the reason this twist probably should not have happened.

22. Africa

This season is pretty boring and would be even lower if the whole cast weren’t so likable. T-Bird and the two Kims are all worth rooting for and have their own level of skills. Ethan, Big Tom, and Lex are Survivor legends. Brandon and Frank’s relationship is a hilarious pairing that exemplifies the magic of the odd-couple that was at the heart of early reality TV. These people’s interactions were interesting and the gameplay is there, despite probably living in the worst conditions in Survivor history.

21. Palau

I always thought this season would be better had they not allowed Ulong to be decimated down to the final person. Sure it makes for an interesting factoid, but it essentially splits the season in two, with Stephanie as the winner of one season and Tom as the winner of the other. This is why we need tribe swaps and why the three tribe format has become a current fixture. Other than this the season is filled with people that are fun to watch: if Ian doesn’t jump off that pole in that way he 100% comes back, Gregg is an underrated player, Katie is an underrated character, and Tom is one of the best players in the show.

20. Caramoan

I don’t really have any desire to go back and watch all the girls get voted off the fans, Brandon Hantz 2.0’s meltdown, or Shamar yelling–but the second half is really good. Malcolm and Corinne leading a failed uprising, Malcolm again leading a failed bro-rising, and Cochran completely owning a season was a lot of fun. Give Erik and Brenda a better edit, take out the taking out of Dawn’s teeth and it’s probably top 15 or 10.

19. Gabon

There are a lot of interesting things at play here, the season’s multiple swaps probably ended up giving us the worst final 3 ever (Sugar, Bob, Susie) but also prevented us from Marcus just sweeping up everyone in a really straightforward way. I am thankful that we got to see Kenny the underdog turn into Kenny the mastermind turn into Kenny the fallen god in one of the more unexpected character story arcs. Randy and Corinne are forever great, but I can’t ignore that awful final 3.

18. Guatemala

There are so many fun people here and it’s disappointing some had to leave so early (Brian, Amy), while Cindy and Lydia made it to final 5. Stephanie and Bobby Jon’s return worked out okay, but it’s people like Judd that really make the season. Danni recognizing Gary was one of the more random shocking moments in the show’s history; Danni could secretly be as good as Kim Spradlin, it’s a shame we will likely never get to find out.

17. Worlds Apart

Hard to rank because of recency and the way the last half of the season was filled with so much Dan, both in and out of the show, and Will’s pretty despicable thrashing of Shirin. Mike is one of the more interesting winner’s, combining Tony’s scrappiness with Colby’s challenge wins and love of Texas–I think he’s a good player, but didn’t really play that well here. I’m still not sure what I think of Rodney and how I remember him will have a huge effect on how I view this season going forward.

16. Australia

This is a good season with lots of classic moments and characters. I agree with the reputation that it slows down after the merge and though Colby and Tina are great, for me they are not that great. That being said, those first 6 or so episodes are classic due to Alicia’s finger, Mike’s craziness, and Jeff Varner being amazing.

15. Panama

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I keep moving this season up and I think it’s because of how great that Casaya tribe is: Aras, Cirie, Danielle, Courtney, Shane, and Bruce are the least likely bunch of people to ever stick together under the guise of tribe loyalty, but they sure did it, defining the term dysfunctional in the process. Terry made it interesting playing the near-spoiler to Casaya and Cirie made one of the best plays of all time in splitting people’s votes to get Courtney out.

14. San Juan del Sur

Surprised it’s this high, but the more I think about it the more I love it. The first three episodes are average (depending on how much you like John Rocker’s storyline), but the fourth episode features Drew Christy making a buffoon of himself and similar to the Roger in Amazon episode makes no bones about who is going home. After the worst episode (Julie’s quit) we get Josh vs. Jeremy, Jeremy’s blindside (with Natalie’s “what the f*** Missy?”), the near blindside of Jon only negated by Keith’s “stick to the plan”, Jon and Jaclyn’s fight, and Natalie turning into a Survivor goddess by “accidentally” voting out Alec, blindsiding Jon, and idol-ing out Baylor.

13. Heroes vs. Villains

This is probably the most overrated of all seasons for me. It was great seeing all the big characters battling it out with one another – Russell vs. Rob is amazing – but the big moments rely way too much on the hidden immunity idol. I am a fan of hidden idols, but having 5 in a 2 tribe season was overkill (though JT’s letter is still great). This is the point where Russell started to get annoying and by the time the final 7 comes around the season feels tiresome.

12. Micronesia

One of my favorites upon my first watch, but trying to think of watching it again feels exhausting considering that we have to watch episodes with the boring fans in the pre-merge. I have no desire to watch the Chet, Kathy, and Joel drama; this is probably a fundamental problem with the fans vs. favorites format, the fans are never interesting enough when compared to the favorites. The post-merge however, with blindside after blindside, is incredible and that is why it still remains high. I’ll never forget watching Eliza play the stick, Ozzy get blindsided, or Erik giving up immunity.

11. Samoa

This might be the worst edited season of all time and though it was entertaining to see Russell shoved down our throats so much at the time, it does not hold up anymore. A more moderately edited season with a bit more Galu (Brett anyone?) and Natalie might enter into top 5 territory, because Russell is entertaining and the Foa Foa comeback is fantastic.

10. Blood vs. Water

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This was a mighty gamble for Survivor to do and it is one that actually paid off. Seeing players compete with their loved-ones was fascinating, adding extra layers of emotion, drama, and strategy. There were huge moments (the rock draw) and small ones (the coconut bandits) leading to a great season, one in which the new players actually competed with the old – both in strategy and air time.

9. Fiji

I suppose this season gets some heat for its have and have not twist, as it should, but the fall of the four horseman, as well as everything Earl/Yau Man do is mightily entertaining on all levels. Even the “Rocky” pre-merge is fun to watch in my opinion–loved it then and I love it now.

8. Borneo

This season might be quite boring to watch at certain moments but I argue that it is the best cast of them all. Nearly every person lives in memory and helped to define not only the show but television over the last 14 years. On rewatch it is fascinating to watch the lightbulbs go off one by one as they figure out the format and the game. Richard Hatch will always be a top 10 best character of the show.

7. Philippines

This might be the best edited season of them all, the opening of episode 4 showing the decimated Matsing tribe is cinematic. This season cemented that a three tribe format leads to great unpredictability with the final 10 tribal council leading to potentially the most last minute tribal council scrambling ever. Malcolm and Denise are both top 20 players of all time, Abi-Maria is a great character, Lisa was intermittently interesting, and Penner lived up to all that we wanted him to be.

6. Vanuatu

The ultimate underdog story, Chris coming back from being down 6 to 1 is only lifted by how funny and entertaining of a character he is. The final 7 blindside is one of my favorite moments in the shows history – the glances between Ami and Eliza are priceless. Rory, Chad, and Sarge are all underrated characters, while Ami and Leann were fierce before their downfall. And Twila never coming back was an absolute shame!

5. Tocantins

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It might be the best final 2 ever, even if Stephen gets absolutely torn apart, JT played up his Southern charms, Tyson brought people to tears and laughed in their faces, and Coach was Coach, leading to a season full of great characters and gameplay.

4. Pearl Islands

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Has three of the biggest icons in the show’s history and is also wildly unpredictable. The pirate theme is a lot of fun and it made Rupert really fun to watch, His nemesis Jonny Fairplay brought in his professional wrestling style storytelling and did some of the most unique manipulation in the shows history (the famous Grandma lie) while also playing a legitimately good game. Outcasts aside, this is one of the best.

3. Cagayan

Episode after episode proved to be wild, it might be the best cast since the show’s original season. Tony vs. Spencer was one of the best showdown’s ever and it ended with such a satisfying conclusion. Let’s not forget those moments when we were all convinced LJ was the winner either, this whole thing kept us on our toes.

2. China

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An excellently cast season featuring characters to cheer for (James) and against (Jean-Robert). Watching superfan Todd truly become the first major fan to win the show is so satisfying and makes up for all the other gamers doomed to 3rd place before him (Rafe, Rob C, Fairplay). Plus, even those who should be forgettable (like a Jaime or a Peih-Gee) are pretty fun to watch and pretty decent at the game. Courtney is one of the funniest people to ever be on the show and Denise is unintentionally up there too.

1. Amazon

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Picking a number one is forever difficult, so it is easiest to revert to the season that I first watched/fell in love with. Rob Cesternino essentially introduced the flip-flopping strategy which always makes for the most compelling version of Survivor. The other characters are great, but all is elevated by Rob’s ability to play strategically and to come up with golden observations in his confessionals (“the only way Roger is gonna win immunity is if it’s a contest like “name that Perry Como song” or perhaps “what type of prune is this?”‘)

Survivor San Juan del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 8

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #2 in the rankings Josh, went home.

10. Alec (last week: 11th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 10th Total: 5 points)

alec

Alec had a week that made him look even worse than the week’s prior, plus his alliance lost the numbers.

9. Wes (last week: 9th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 9th Total: 7 points)

wes

Wes is not that good at Survivor, what do you know. He’s a goner.

8. Reed (last week: 10th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 8th Total: 11 points)

reed

Reed is in the worst spot right now and has no chance of winning, but I see him as one of the most capable players this season, speaks more to the talent this season than to Reed.

7. Keith (last week: 7th) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 6rd Total: 11 points)

keith

Keith’s good edit took a turn this week and now his chances fall to the 1% range. Even his idol looks to be flushed this week.

6. Baylor (last week: 8th) (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 7th Total: 16 points)

baylor

Baylor has got to be the third place finisher, she has the big edit but one that shows that nobody really likes her.

5. Jaclyn (last week: 6th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 5th Total: 18 points)

jaclyn

If only Jaclyn had been shown in the first few episodes, she might be an actual contender, instead we know that she can’t win. She also seems like a capable player and her role in the game will likely be important (as she told us it was), but I don’t see her going anywhere.

4. Jon (last week: 3rd) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 2nd Total: 19 points)

jon

I think we’ve seen too much dumb Jon for him to win and he will be a huge threat in a couple weeks (perhaps even more than Jeremy), but we’ve got a consistent longterm edit from him throughout and for San Juan del Sur that’s probably all you’re going to need.

3. Missy (last week: 4th) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 3rd Total: 25 points)

missy

I don’t think she is going to win, but she hasn’t done anything to eliminate herself completely and is in a pretty good spot with a lot of influence so she remains a top contender.

2. Natalie (last week: 5th) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 4th Total: 26 points)

natalie

Maybe Natalie is the Denise of this season with Jeremy as the Malcolm. Could she vote him out at final four and go into an easy finals against Baylor and Jaclyn? Denise also disappeared for a bit in the post-merge… I’m not sure about this theory, but if Natalie doesn’t get more soon, I don’t know if she will be the one.

1. Jeremy (last week: 1st) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 1st Total: 27 points)

jeremy

He is the obvious frontrunner and he seems to have enough room to maneuver himself to the finals with a loyal ally (Natalie) and two pairs who should probably go after one another (Jon/Jaclyn and Missy/Baylor). He can likely beat them all in the end too. Unless someone else pops up soon I just don’t see him losing (though let’s be real someone else will probably win and make this season even more terrible. Let’s rank the contestants in order of redeeming this season with a win 10. Alec 9. Wes 8. Baylor 7. Missy 6. Jon 5. Reed 4. Jaclyn 3. Natalie 2. Jeremy 1. Keith)

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 7

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #11 in the rankings Julie, went home.

11. Alec (last week: 10th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 11th Total: 4 points)

alec

Alec didn’t improve any, he’s an outer member of Josh’s alliance which is my prediction to be the one that falls.

10. Reed (last week: 10th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 10th Total: 9 points)

reed

Even if Josh is successful there is no way Reed wins, because the edit is Josh-centric.

9. Wes (last week: 9th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 9th Total: 16 points)

wes

Keith forgot your birthday just like we are forgetting that you are in this game.

8. Baylor (last week: 4th) (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 7th Total: 16 points)

baylor

I thought her prominent edit was gonna lead to her being a contender, but now I think it leads to her being a losing finalist.

7. Keith (last week: 8th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 3rd Total: 19 points)

keith

I actually think Keith has a prominent role to play–his edit is making him looking like someone to watch, but right now he looks to be stuck in a subpar position.

6. Jaclyn (last week: 7th) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 8th Total: 21 points)

jaclyn

Maybe the previewed conflict between her and Jon will amount to something, but I think it’s a false alarm and that she and Jon will join the Jeremy/Natalie/Missy/Baylor foursome.

5. Natalie (last week: 1st) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 5th Total: 21 points)

natalie

Her silence at the merge is frightening. My new theory is that she and Jeremy advance to the end and she ends up either getting 4th or 2nd place with Jon going 7th; Missy and Keith going out 6th or 5th; and Jaclyn, Natalie, Jeremy, and Baylor making up the final four, with Baylor getting a guaranteed 3rd and Jeremy winning.

4. Missy (last week: 2nd) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 4th Total: 21 points)

missy

It was impossible for me to tell whether her long speech about Baylor was meant to be seen as a positive or negative. People have read it both ways and I think it could go either way. It seemed more negative to me, but she is someone who should hang around and does have some skills.

3. Jon (last week: 3rd) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 5th Total: 24 points)

jon

The swing vote is an important position to be in, but I don’t think Jon has the tact to make it go his way. Look for him to go out around 7th.

2. Josh (last week: 5th) (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 2nd Total: 24 points)

josh

He is rated so high because if by chance he can convince Jon and Jaclyn to get rid of Jeremy he seems all but guaranteed to win. We’re not betting on this though, I think Jeremy takes it.

1. Jeremy (last week: 6th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 1st Total: 24 points)

jeremy

Jeremy takes over the top spot, there is still a lot of doubt as to whether he will be the sole Survivor, but right now it looks like he will at least be in position to lead his group there.

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 6

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #13 in the rankings Dale, went home.

12. Alec (last week: 11th) (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 9th Total: 8 points)

alec

The best sign for Alec would be if he flipped to Jeremy and Natalie, forming a formidable singles alliance that could potentially rise up at the right moment. If he sticks with Josh and Reed, he is a physical threat on a sinking ship.

11. Julie (last week: 10th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 12th Total: 9 points)

julie

The quitter edit in a season that has been hinted at having a quitter? Not good for Julie, plus the preview shows her doing something that will highly affect her position. Her best move would be to stay quiet as the third behind Natalie and Jeremy and flip with them at the right moment. Of course this leads her into a 3rd wheel sort of position, so, sorry Julie you’re out of luck.

10. Reed (last week: 12th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 11th Total: 10 points)

reed

Reed has gotten more screen time, but this is likely leading to his (and maybe Josh’s) downfall. If he and Josh were to make it to the end you’d think we’d see something from him, but it’s likely that he goes soon.

9. Wes (last week: 4th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 10th Total: 14 points)

wes

Wes will likely stick with Josh and therefore is doomed. I don’t think he is a bad player, but his story is.

8. Keith (last week: 2nd) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 6th Total: 18 points)

keith

Keith is in an interesting position, because he and Wes are the only couple to not have a chance to interact. Will they join Jon/Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor as Keith has the last couple votes? Or will he be swayed over to Josh/Reed/Alec by Wes? Or could they actually be split up? Even more interesting will be what happens with his idol which could throw a whole lot more into a loop. I like it when someone like Keith has an idol, someone who is not in charge, and really could do anything with it–let’s hope it turns out more like Penner having it than Ralph.

7. Jaclyn (last week: 8th) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 8th Total: 22 points)

jaclyn

Jaclyn has worked her way into a good spot at the merge and though she will be a big number going forward, she is still not a main consideration for the winner.

6. Jeremy (last week: 6th) (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 2nd Total: 22 points)

jeremy

Last week built upon that this season was edging toward a Jeremy vs. Josh battle and the merge (or soon thereafter) seems to be the place it will happen. Previously Josh had the advantage, but with Natalie, Jeremy could be the one to move forward. He seems like a big threat to be taken out at any moment, but he could do it.

5. Josh (last week: 1st) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 7th Total: 23 points)

josh

I still think he’s the best player, at least of the obvious ones. I look forward to seeing him play again, but for now he seems poised to be the target of the merge. The numbers and the edit don’t seem to be going his way as far as allies go and unless it’s Reed that goes and Josh miraculously gets by on a couple of votes, his odds are reducing.

4. Baylor (last week: 5th) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 5th Total: 25 points)

baylor

I’ve given up on Baylor being a good player, but I do think she is an important character and will be there a while. She and Missy could be the duo everything hinges on and maybe her more positive edit over her mother means that she will outlast her.

3. Jon (last week: 3rd) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 4th Total: 25 points)

jon

A prime contender for the winner position though I am now inclined to believe (like a lot of people) that he and Jaclyn will be taken out in the middle of the game leading into a Natalie, Jeremy, Baylor, Missy alliance with one or two stragglers.

2. Missy (last week: 9th) (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 3rd Total: 29 points)

missy

She’s going to be pivotal going into the merge, likely getting Natalie on her side who will bring Jeremy and Julie giving them 7 votes when combined with Jon and Jaclyn. If she can maneuver this she’s got a good shot especially against her daughter who others seem not to like. Her sort of negative opening edit does throw suspicion onto whether she can win.

1. Natalie (last week: 7th) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 1st Total: 29 points)

natalie

We saw good stuff out of her this week and while last week it looked like her and Jeremy were in a bad spot, this week could be their week to take control. Natalie is primed with all sorts of relationships all over the place and according to the rankings is primed to pull this off.

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Apparently I never clicked publish on these last week, well, here they are for your records.

Post-Episode 5

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #6 in the rankings (and my pregame winner pick), Kelley, went home.

13. Dale (last week: 13th) (Position: 13th, Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 12th Total: 4 points)

dale

It turns out Dale doesn’t really get along with other people, now he’s once again at the bottom and he’s probably to blame for the downfall of his daughter, who I had picked to win and think actually came across as decent the last couple weeks. One of the few capable players is gone and Dale remains.

12. Reed (last week: 14th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 13th Total: 11 points)

reed

Reed could be good, we still really don’t know, but we do know that he is irrelevant.

11. Alec (last week: 12th) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 11th Total: 15 points)

alec

Alec is the swing vote which puts him in a good spot, but he’s not that good at playing Survivor. He’s Drew-lite, which is better than Drew, but is still not that great.

10. Julie (last week: 4th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 10th Total: 17 points)

julie

Julie has given just enough to make her seem like someone who will be around for a while, she’s basically Morgan from last season.

9. Missy (last week: 2nd) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 7th Total: 17 points)

missy

Missy drops way down because of the way she seemed to treat everybody as soon as she had her daughter with her. Yes she was able to get Jon and Jaclyn to her side and this alliance could prove to be very fruitful, but what she showed otherwise was not impressive.

8. Jaclyn (last week: 11th) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 9th Total: 21 points)

jaclyn

Jaclyn again is slowly rising and now that she resides in the main alliance she could be someone who makes the top 7. I think she has basically been disqualified from winning though.

7. Natalie (last week: 5th) (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 6th Total: 21 points)

natalie

I think Natalie is an early post-merge boot. She will be on the bottom and be seen as a threat and will be taken out. And I think that this will be really bad for the season, but this season is bad anyways, so we’ll see.

6. Jeremy (last week: 7th) (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 4th Total: 24 points)

jeremy

It doesn’t seem like Jeremy is going to be able to pull off his “surround and drown” strategy, but good on him for attempting something that seems so capable in a season that’s main highlight has been bartering with Jeff.

5. Baylor (last week: 1st) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 3rd Total: 26 points)

baylor

She drops because she too did not look as good as she had before. I think she’s important, but her winner status is in question for now.

4. Wes (last week: 8th) (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 8th Total: 28 points)

wes

Wes only ends up here because I like his spot in the game and I thought his social relationships were impressive on the other tribe.

3. Jon (last week: 10th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 2nd Total: 28 points)

jon

How I feel about Jon is the same as I feel about this season: mildly interesting, slightly entertaining, and not good at gameplay. Jon’s recovery after seeing his ally go was pretty good and he ended up in a good spot off of the swap, but I still don’t see anything I really like out of him. Maybe this season is so ‘blah’ because he is our winner and they can’t really give us anything else.

2. Keith (last week: 9th) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 5th Total: 29 points)

keith

Keith is by far in the best spot, the couples won’t turn against him ahead of getting out Dale and if Dale does get voted out the couples will use him as the swing vote. Plus he had an idol in his pocket to keep him safe. I don’t really think he’s our winner or particularly good at Survivor, but if he were to win his edit likely would not be too different.

1. Josh (last week: 3rd) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 1st Total: 31 points)

josh

Josh reclaims the top spot as the most (only?) competent player in this season of Survivor. If he doesn’t win I do not see a way for this season to be redeemed (maybe Jeremy can take that too). His tribe is strong and if they don’t have to give up immunity in a rice trade, they should be set until the merge.

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 4

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #15 in the rankings, Drew, went home.

NOTE: This week’s rankings in Position were based in the post-swap tribe dynamic.

Sorry I didn’t do a write-up, I got lazy and waited too long to do this.

14. Reed (last week: 9th) (Position: 13th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 14th Total: 9 points)

reed

13. Dale (last week: 13th) (Position: 14th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 11th Total: 9 points)

dale

12. Alec (last week: 10th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 12th Total: 15 points)

alec

11. Jaclyn (last week: 14th) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 14th, Edit: 13th Total: 16 points)

jaclyn

10. Jon (last week: 12th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 9th Total: 16 points)

jon

9. Keith (last week: 7th) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 7th Total: 20 points)

keith

8. Wes (last week: 5th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 10th Total: 21 points)

wes

7. Jeremy (last week: 2nd) (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 3rd Total: 24 points)

jeremy

6. Kelly (last week: 8th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 7th Total: 27 points)

kelly

5. Natalie (last week: 6th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 4th Total: 28 points)

natalie

4. Julie (last week: 11th) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 8th Total: 29 points)

julie

3. Josh (last week: 1st) (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 2nd Total: 31 points)

josh

2. Missy (last week: 4th) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 5th Total: 34 points)

missy

1. Baylor (last week: 3rd) (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 1st Total: 36 points)

baylor

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 3

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #13 in the rankings, John, went home.

15. Drew (last week: 15th) (Position: 14th , Capabilities: 15th, Edit: 15th Total: 4 points)

drew

The cocky, lazy, doofus edit doesn’t serve him, plus he has been pointed out by Jeremy as someone he wants to get rid of.

14. Jaclyn (last week: 16th) (Position: 13th , Capabilities: 14th, Edit: 14th Total: 7 points)

jaclyn

Moves up a spot because she is just about reaching the point where nobody will want to get rid of her, however her lack of air time gives her no chance of winning.

13. Dale (last week: 9th) (Position: 15th , Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 10th Total: 13 points )

dale

Being on the outs and the weakest in a losing tribe has shot Dale down to the bottom. Surviving until a swap could do him some good, but I don’t think he has what it takes.

12. Jon (last week: 14th) (Position: 11th , Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 8th Total: 20 points)

jon

Not much from him this week, we need to see his tribe go to tribal to see where he really stands, but it seems like it’s outside the main alliance.

11. Julie (last week: 12th) (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 9th Total: 20 points)

julie

Hard to say how much Julie hurts or benefits from John leaving. Any animosity toward her could be nullified by his exit, but it may already be too late for her.

10. Alec (last week: 5th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 12th Total: 22 points)

alec

Drops this week because of the shattering of the guys’ alliance – which is perfectly suited to help someone like him. Add to this that he did not actually want to vote Rocker out and was shown as being outside the main decision making process and I am thinking Alec is less and less capable of winning.

9. Reed (last week: 10th) (Position: 7th , Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 13th Total: 24 points)

reed

Apparently the editors don’t know where to put you in the show and neither do I! He is ranked high in the capability department only because nobody is really playing all that well.

8. Kelly (last week: 6th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 11th Total: 24 points)

kelly

I have a feeling Dale is gonna go and Kelly will start to rise as a part of Jeremy’s alliance and a character in this game, but as for now she’s got nothing.

7. Keith (last week: 7th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 4th Total: 25 points)

keith

There’s been a couple of hints of dissension between he and Jeremy, add to it his bonding with Josh and Keith is either in a prime position to flip or be voted out soon.

6. Natalie (last week: 4th) (Position: 3rd , Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 6th Total: 26 points)

natalie

Her blowing up all over John last week was not the kind of thing you want to see out of a Survivor player, but her edit and relationships with her tribe are both strong, so she’s got a shot.

5. Wes (last week: 11th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 7th Total: 27 points)

wes

Wes probably impressed me the most this week, although his move probably put him in a worse position he seemed very socially capable. As I’ll reinforce with Josh later, I’d much rather take someone with strong social skills who makes a few strategic mistakes than a mastermind who can’t form relationships. Wes built those bonds and showed himself to be thinking by sending the person he wanted to Exile with his dad.

4. Missy (last week: 8th) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 5th Total: 33 points)

missy

The comforter to the outsider while remaining an insider is always a good spot. We’ve gotten a steady dose of Missy, which is especially good considering her daughter has also been prominent.

3. Baylor (last week: 3rd) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 1st Total: 34 points)

baylor

She’s still not in a great position, but the editors have been favorable to her – showing her as someone on the bottom who recognizes this and works their way into a good position (others who were shown like this recently are Ciera or Spencer which bodes well for her). If she can make a swap or merge she is golden for a while.

2. Jeremy (last week: 1st) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 3rd Total: 41 points)

jeremy

Jeremy falls from the number one spot for the first time due to the harshness of his reactions to Rocker. It’s true that he was somewhat able to get Rocker voted out without even being on the tribe, but he will definitely turn into an obvious threat at some point.

1. Josh (last week: 2nd) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 2nd Total: 41 points)

josh

Sure Josh may be relying too heavily on his alliance with Baylor (all of his votes so far have been affected by it) but we all complained so heavily the last two weeks about this too and this week Josh was said to be the most trusted person in the tribe by both John and Wes. When Josh decides to go after John everyone goes along with it right away. Josh is socially killing it. His moves may not be 100% perfect at this point (neither were Tony’s) but given some time – with a social game like this – Josh is playing very well.

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 2

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #13 in the rankings, Val, went home.

16. Jaclyn (last week: 17th) (Position: 16th, Capabilities: 15th, Edit: 16th Total: 4 points )

jaclyn

Sorry Jaclyn what we have seen from you hasn’t been great and the editors aren’t showing us much!

15. Drew (last week: 16th) (Position: 15th, Capabilities: 14th, Edit:  15th Total: 7 points)

drew

You are continually thrown under the bus by the editors and Jeremy for some reason has his targets set on you with the most social capacity.

14. Jon (last week: 10th) (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 10th Total: 16 points )

jon

This may be where people disagree with me most, but I really felt as if he was supposed to look stupid rather than smart when he lost the flint. He may have won against Rocker, but Julie was given more than he was for doing so. Add to it that he seems on the bottom and it’s not a good week for him.

13. John (last week: 11th) (Position: 3rd , Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 14th Total: 18 points )

rocker

Things are continuing to spiral out of control for the controversial ex-pitcher, but he still has a spot within the majority, is conceivably strong in challenges, and has that Hidden Immunity Idol. Without the idol he might be in last place, but with echoes of so many people wanting to take him to the end, 13th is where he ends up.

12. Julie (last week: 15th) (Position: 14th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 7th Total: 20 points)

julie

She is rising up the rankings one positive confessional at a time, what hurts her is that Jeremy might consider going after her because of her bf’s broken deal with him. Need to see more from her.

11. Wes (last week: 14th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 13th  Total: 21 points)

wes

Was made to look dumb from the beginning, getting few confessionals here doesn’t help, but he is in the majority for now.

10. Reed (last week: 12th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 11th Total: 23 points)

reed

Can’t really rate him until his tribe goes to tribal, his boyfriend is eating up all of his edit for now.

9. Dale (last week: 5th) (Position: 13th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 5th Total: 25 points)

dale

He seemed really high strung this episode which is never the sign of a good Survivor player. Add to it that he continually looks weaker in a losing tribe and it could hurt. The edit has been solid though.

8. Missy (last week: 9th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 9th Total: 27 points)

missy

Her daughter is the stronger player and winner candidate, but the edit seems to tie them together, so Missy could do something. One of those middle players for the winning tribe.

7. Keith (last week: 4th) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 9th Total: 29 points)

keith

Not much for him on the 2nd episode, maybe he lasts a long while, but as a potential 4th or 5th placer.

6. Kelly (last week: 8th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 8th Total: 30 points)

kelly

Goes up by default, consistently shown in a slightly positive context. I still believe that she can be a solid player, but all of that is yet to be proven.

5. Alec (last week: 7th) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 12th Total: 31 points)

alec

Being athletic and keeping your mouth shut may lead to Alec being a potential contender, he’s only 5th because there is really NO ONE ELSE!

4. Natalie (last week: 6th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 3rd Total: 32 points)

natalie

Her twinnie leaving perhaps gave her a more positive edit, but we’ll take it at this point. Everything she has done has been positive, though if she was the winner you’d have to think she would be shown a bit more.

3. Baylor (last week: 3rd) (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 4th Total: 33 points)

baylor

The youngin’ stays in the spotlight for a 2nd episode which continues to make me think that there is something to her. She is a capable person on a tribe with John Rocker, so she could last.

2. Josh (last week: 2nd) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 2nd Total: 45 points)

josh

I don’t think Josh is a great player, but the editors are making him out to be the focal point of his tribe. I suppose he could explain away his decisions and make everything right, it’s hard to judge.

1. Jeremy (last week: 1st) (Position:1st , Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 1st Total: 48 points)

jeremy

Jeremy sweeps this week in a season full of nonchalant characters. Nothing is really happening and Jeremy has been shown to be smart, anti-John Rocker, and to have a heart, so he’s got to be number 1, at least amongst this crowd.

 

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Last week I released my pre-game rankings for Survivor San Juan del Sur, this week my post week-1 rankings done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

17. Jaclyn (Position: 17th, Capabilities: 16th, Edit: 16th Total: 5 points )

Not only is Jaclyn on the losing end of the alliance, but she is on the weaker end of the tribe. Add to this the fact that she doesn’t know much about the game, and her bf got the heartbreaking edit not about her uterus and there is no reason to think she will win.

16. Drew (Position: 13th, Capabilities: 17th, Edit: 17th Total: 7 points )

Drew will conceivably stick around a few votes just for his strength, but bro if you are making a shelter and look around and see that no one else is helping, this is not a good sign! He also had the cocky, oblivious model edit.

15. Julie (Position: 15th, Capabilities: 14th , Edit: 13th Total: 12 points )

I don’t have a good read on Julie, she had some funny lines about Drew that seemed poignant, but also doesn’t seem to be in any alliance. She seems like someone who will be an easy early target and without the protection of an alliance will be doomed.

14. Wes (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 15th, Edit: 15th Total: 17 points)

Got the negative edit in comparison to his dad and the whole John Rocker situation was capped off by John threatening to vote him out via confessional. His position is solid for now, but I don’t think he’s got a real shot.

13. Val (Position: 16th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 12th Total: 21 points)

Val was the outsider and now sits further outside after being the vocal one about starting a girls alliance. Credit to her for rallying from her situation to get into a group, but sitting on the outside doesn’t look good right now. Plus she mishandled the idol clue situation, better to tell Keith who can then work with your husband to get the clue. Instead Keith will eventually learn that it in fact was an idol clue and perhaps distrust both Val and Jeremy.

12. Reed (Position: 14th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 7th Total: 22 points)

I think Reed is really solid, but the fact that he was silent for most of the episode and not shown to be in the main alliance making could be worrisome. Or it could not be, really hard to tell.

11. John (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 14th Total: 24 points)

He wasn’t given enough of a redemption edit to take him seriously as a contender, but for now he’s sitting pretty as the strongest guy in the guy’s alliance.

10. Jon (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 4th Total: 27 points)

He was given the pull on your heartstrings confessional which has got to serve some further purpose down the line, as well as being shown to be likable. However, he was not shown to be in an alliance, which hurts.

9. Missy (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 8th Total: 28 points)

Missy is in the middle of the pack in all categories. She is in the main alliance and I really think her and Baylor’s story is going to be the Laura/Ciera of this season.

8. Kelly (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 9th Total: 29 points)

My pick to win wasn’t given a whole lot of screen time, but was shown in conversation with Jeremy and was not shown doing anything dumb, so I’ll take it as a good sign.

7. Alec (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 11th Total: 29 points)

A nice enough young athletic guy who voted in the majority alliance certainly has a shot of going far. I think his edit and skills make him out to last further than his brother.

6. Natalie (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 10th Total: 30 points )

I don’t know how Natalie ended up this high, but I think she will be helped by Nadiya’s departure. Being in an alliance with Jeremy and strong in challenges also helps.

5. Dale (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 5th Total: 35 points )

Are we being set up for a Dale boot or will his overcoming this episode lead to him being safe for weeks to come? Hard to say, but Dale played hard this episode and really saved himself. He made himself an asset, recognized he was on the outs, and seemed to plant all the right seeds to get Nadiya out.

4. Keith (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 1st Total: 35 points)

Keith could have been the old, unimportant figure. He could have been the unaware Southerner. He could have been the guy who went to exile and could not work himself back in with the tribe. But Keith was one of the most prominent figures of the episode. He (successfully) threw shade at his son, made bonds with people, and came across as likable. I see bright things for his future.

3. Baylor (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 6th Total: 41 points)

Like Keith, Baylor could have been seen a lot of different ways, but she came across as strong, confident, and willing to play. I like the fact that she positioned herself as being with the women and tying herself to Josh as well. While we don’t know why he voted for her, I could see Baylor Ciera-ing herself to the guys and becoming a pivotal player later on. After Jaclyn and Val get picked off I could see Dale, Wes, or John becoming the target over her. Plus, the edit seemed to set her up as someone who has had to be strong throughout her life, she’s my underdog for now.

2. Jeremy (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 3rd Total: 46 points )

Jeremy put himself in a fantastic position and the episode was all about him. He showed that he is there to play and while I like this, I am not confident whether this is good or not. People who play too hard, too fast (your Martys and Matts) do not tend to win Survivor. Maybe Jeremy will pull a Tony and defy expectations with his fast and loose play, but for now the best he looks to be going for is a spot on the next All-Stars.

1. Josh (Position: 2nd , Capabilities:1st , Edit: 2nd Total: 49 points)

All of my hype about Josh could be quickly negated when it is discovered why he voted for Baylor, but since the editors didn’t really seem to draw attention to it, I will ignore it for now. The swing vote can be a precarious position to be in, especially early, but I think Josh played it well enough and having a partner to be able to decide with helps tremendously. If he can get one of the guys to his side he may be able to take control of the core group. The camera seemed to love him, he was making smart moves (his quote about always saying yes seemed to be a good sign), and for now he seems like the most obvious choice for a winner.

Pre-Season Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

I’m going to try to write a weekly ranking on the cast of Survivor this season. It will feature a BCS style system with three different categories combining to give a number of the person most likely to win the game each week. Those three categories will be: Current Position in the Game, Edit, and Capability – these will be further explained later.

For now a pre-game ranking based in who I think has the best chance of winning.

18. John

C’mon there is no way John Rocker wins Survivor, there is absolutely no way.

17. Julie

Upon watching John and Julie’s videos they seem a lot better than I would have imagined, but again, someone who is attached to John Rocker who comes in with a background of being a sun tan booth owner just doesn’t seem like someone who can win Survivor.

16. Drew

This dude feels oblivious to the way people will perceive him. In his interviews he continuously talked over his brother while saying that his brother was the one whose mouth would get him in trouble. Add to it that he is a young male with another young male out there and I think his shot is miniscule.

15. Jaclyn

I don’t think she really understands the game, though out of everyone it is hardest to get a good read on Jon and Jaclyn.

14. Keith

Age and cultural factors will likely keep the firefighter out of the loop. Plus it doesn’t really seem like he could develop a good grip of the game.

13. Wes

He is a fan and is young which gives him an advantage over his father, but Wes feels like a guy who will play his cards too loose and this will cause him to make mistakes.

12. Missy

She seems plenty likable and could find routes in with the young ones, but someone who has been divorced 3 times doesn’t seem like a good bet.

11. Natalie

The twins actually seem far more likable than everybody was complaining about prior to the season, having not seen their seasons of the Amazing Race. Having said that I don’t think either is poised to win the game. But if they aren’t targeted for being twins or being semi-famous I see either as being capable of making it to the 8 or 9 spot. They’re athletic and they know how reality tv works, so middle game seems like their best positioning.

10. Nadiya

I don’t know the difference between them. Though I think Nadiya is on the better tribe.

9. Baylor

Could she Ciera her way into a chance of winning? I think so, as long as she can work her way into an alliance no one is going to be gunning for her come merge time.

8. Jon

I am not super high on him, but something about him seems like he at least has the potential to run the entire game.

7. Alec

The more timid of the brothers feels like he could be a solid person to align with. Add to this the fact that his brother seems like someone who could go out early helps Alec’s chances immensely. Though there is part of me that thinks that Alec could go under someone’s wing and just get completely manipulated.

6. Josh

The last 6 are 3 of the pairs that I just like so much more than the others. I think Josh has a much better chance if Reed gets voted out early (same for Reed). He just seems like the more likely of the 2, to get out early.

5. Val

This is the year of the cop (on reality tv at least, certainly not in real life) and Val seems very likable, smart, and fit. For some reason the way she talked put me off just a little bit and on the island this will likely only be heightened, so we’ll see.

4. Dale

I know I probably shouldn’t be putting the oldest contestant this high up, but really I liked this guy so much. Add to the fact that he recognized the twins and he is a big fan and I think he has a shot as long as he can get past those first few weeks.

3. Reed

The superfan of the two, I think Reed has enough charm, knowledge of Survivor, and athleticism to really work himself into the group and perhaps take himself to the top.

2. Jeremy

Jeremy is very very likable. He seems like the kind of guy that you just want to be friends with. Add to this that he seems like one of the most prepared contestants out there and is athletic and smart and it is hard not to pick him as a winner. I could see him getting a little over-eager out there, but if he can contain himself, especially for the first few votes, he is a huge threat.

1. Kelly

There is a bell that rings in my head every once in a while when watching the pregame Survivor interviews – I will call this the Kim Spradlin effect. I predicted Kim to win her season, because I was drawn to just how solid of a person she seemed to be (Full disclosure: I also had this feeling somewhat about Tasha last year). Kelly gives me those same alarms. She seems to be very mature (28 is at least close to the same age as Kim was), she grew up on a farm but now lives in the city – something that will hopefully help her relate to a diverse crowd, and she seems capable of competing. If she can get in good with a few people on her tribe, she has the ability to adapt to any situation after that. I’m not saying she will have the strategic capability of Kim, but she’s got a shot.