Survivor Philippines Episode 7

Ahhh the merge is here and in one of the most unpredictable episodes in a long time, we saw RC go home after Penner saved himself with a Hidden Immunity Idol.

Just How Good Was this Episode?

Where do we even start? There are so many things that could have happened and so much I am sure that we were not shown as far as deal making goes.

People are saying that this might be the episode in the post-Heroes vs. Villains era of Survivor, but I still believe that one goes to the South Pacific merge episode. In that one, we got so much more resolution than in this one. This episode had so much uncertainty that it’s hard to tell if this decision will even affect anything at the next Tribal Council.

This serves well for the rest of the season, as South Pacific turned terribly boring for the next 4 or 5 episodes post-merge, while I think that this one will remain interesting perhaps for the rest of the season. To put it in movie terms, the payoff wasn’t as high here, because we’re not really sure what the aftermath will be.

What we saw on this week’s episode was something nearly unprecedented in Survivor history in which essentially factions of 3 different tribes combined to target 3 other people. There were 8 people that formed a majority alliance in this episode!

It helps that they were targeting returning players, but still that blows my mind!

Did Jeff Kent Strike Out?

Now would be a good point to discuss this week’s big decision. Jeff Kent was faced with 2 main options of how to vote in this week’s episode. His first option was to join Pete, Abi-Maria, Artis, Lisa, and Malcolm with his group of Denise and Carter in order to split the votes against Penner and RC.

Now at first this seems like an alright choice for him, being a strong male leader who’s alliance is down in the numbers. He gets to join a group that has some serious factions in it. Usually he would be a target in this scenario, but instead he has the possibility of getting rid of someone from the other tribe!

But, I think this ended up being the worse choice for him to make, because on the other end he was offered for his main alliance of him, Carter, Denise, and Penner to be joined by Skupin and RC in order to create a majority alliance of 6. Had he taken this, he would have been  in the majority of a majority alliance!

But, for Jeff Kent there was one problem with this. Yes, this alliance would feature 2 returning players.

Jeff Kent hates returning players.

He is scared to death of them and will do anything, yes even screw up his own game, to not lose to a returning player.

So instead of taking what looks like a pretty for sure thing by bringing in RC and Skupin, he joined Pete to split the votes and unsuccessfully got Penner out.

This leaves us at what should be a really interesting episode.

It would seem like Penner would be an obvious choice for the next boot, but in a season where there is a non-unified 8 person alliance, anything could happen.

What Should Each Player Do Going Forward?

Let’s take a look at what every person’s best move should be going forward, now that we are at the final 10.

Penner: It looks like Penner will be pulling a Troyzan, in which he isolates himself from everyone trying to win out with immunities. Let’s hope this isn’t so, while Troyzan’s choices were extremely dumb, at least he was a challenge threat, and was facing all women and Tarzan who he could legitimately have a chance at winning every immunity. Penner is probably not in the top 5 challenge competitors left. He is way to savvy to give up like this, throwing a large fit to further remove himself from everyone. Penner needs to find a couple of factions (Denise and Malcolm and Lisa perhaps?) to form something with. But I think his best move is to try and throw somebody under the bus and just get to the next week.

Pete: Well he came out on top this week and does seem to have the most people on his side. I think next week he should go after Skupin, then perhaps try to blindside Jeff Kent, in order to get a real grip on the tribe. Eventually he should get it down to him, Artis, Abi, and Lisa, making sure to get Lisa nowhere near the final 3.

Artis: See Pete.

Abi-Maria: See Pete.

Jeff Kent: Tough to say. I think he and Penner are pretty much done, so his best move would be to just get rid of him ASAP. From there, maybe try to get Malcolm and Lisa on his side to swing the numbers his way. Maybe even get Skupin, because really, he has no more experience than them this far into the game, he’s not a threat.

Carter: See Jeff Kent. (Speaking of which, could Carter be the Fabio to like a Jeff Kent’s Marty? Obviously Marty and Fabio weren’t as close, but kind of similar huh?)

Skupin: Lay low. Start building solid relationships with everyone not close with Pete. Eventually he could turn into an important number to flip the game around. If he sees any opportunity for an alliance, he needs to take it.

Malcolm: He is probably in the best spot, well second best anyways. He didn’t get any blood on his hands in this vote (having no relationship with Penner and didn’t really betray RC). He is right in the middle of the alliance being either #4 or 5 in Pete’s alliance and having a connection with Denise that could get him to jump. Not to mention he is probably still in good with Skupin. Malcolm’s decision should be based on which way the cards fall. At some point he will have to make a move, but it cannot be too early or too late or he will be screwed.

Denise: She is in the best position in my opinion (unless Pete can lead some sort of Tandang 5 charge) having allies on every corner, while not being the obvious threat that Malcolm is. At some point, people are going to turn against Malcolm’s likability and athleticism to try to get him out. Denise, while very athletic, will not get this strong push against her (I don’t think). My advice for Malcolm is the same for her. And my advice for both of them is to stick together. They are each other’s best bet in the game.

Lisa: She continues to rise in my mind every week and I don’t think her winning is inconceivable. In fact, I think that she will make the final 3 as Penner not-so-subtly predicted this week. To do this, Lisa must decide who she wants to play like: Lill or Sandra? If she plays like Lill, then she will constantly be convinced by others (Pete is kinda like Fairplay in this scenario) to do what they want. This will cause others to see her as a pushover and not win. Not to mention, Lill, at the last minute, chose to stand up for herself and voted out the person she had the best chance of beating!

On the other hand, Sandra is the type of player who really understands the game, remains in the middle, and jumps wherever she needs to jump. Lisa is also right in the middle and will go wherever the numbers go, but she needs to make clear that others see her as playing intentionally. If they don’t, all the niceness in the world won’t give her that million dollars. I think that Lisa knows the game. She speaks the Survivor language, and I think that that gives her a solid shot at winning this game.

Random Thoughts

Is there going to be a final 2!?!? RC became the first jury member, which would make a final 2 more practical (with 9 jury members). Otherwise, they risk the chance of a tie (with 8 jury members and a final 3). I’m excited at this possibility, because I do think final 2 is better than 3.

We still have 2 Hidden Immunity Idols left and unless Pete and Malcolm decide to team up, we will definitely see them come into play.

Was Penner tipped off to play his idol? What if someone told Penner to play his idol in order to get RC out and next week’s tirade is just an elaborate ruse, in which Penner is actually a part of a majority alliance?! Probably not.

It will be interesting to see what Skupin’s plan is, because he did ditch voting for Pete and instead voted for Penner. Too many possibilities to get into this.

Player of the week: Malcolm. He dealt with Lisa in a great way and this vote establishes him and someone who will be important in the future.

Next week: Who really knows right?

Survivor Phillipines Episode 6

In the latest episode of Survivor we saw the tribes make a deal to settle a reward challenge, the returning players suffer repercussions at their decisions, and Katie voted out of the Kalabaw tribe.

Katie was my favorite to be the one who goes this week, but I will credit the editors for making it look unclear who would go. One minute into the episode I said to myself ‘Katie is gone!’ but when the votes were being read, I expected either to go (though I think if Penner had went they would have made it a little more dramatic).

The Trade

Let’s start with the reward challenge, because really for the first time ever, a reward challenge was settled by deal making, not by a tribe being victorious.

The only things I can think of as being similar to this are when Yau Man offered Dreamz a car if he promised to give his final immunity to him or maybe people making deals in an endurance challenge. The only ones that come to mind are Vecepia and Neleh making one at the final 3 in Marquesas, Teresa and Clarence at the first individual immunity in Africa, there are a few others, but none that are really as significant.

This certainly differs though, because it was a deal struck between two whole tribes! I thought this was fantastic to watch! It was fairly obvious to me who came away with a better deal, which was the Tandang tribe. Not only did they double their rice, but they took away the consistent food supply from Kalabaw.

Mike Skupin was great to make this deal, but I really don’t know what Penner was thinking. How could this possibly work out for your tribe? Unless he figured that the reward would energize them not only physically, but emotionally as well, there is no way this was a good move.

The only reason I think Penner pushed for this to happen would be to make his mark on Survivor. Honestly I think he just wanted some unprecedented to happen.

Also, it was a good thing Jeff Kent didn’t have to participate in the reward, because this could have wrecked his knee even more!

Tandang Cries Over Spilled Milk

Tandang’s reaction to the move was absolutely ridiculous. Pete, Abi Maria, and Artis are the biggest bunch of whiners out there. This often happens to tribes that don’t get to go to Tribal and work out there issues. They clearly got the better deal.

I am okay with complaining about this, but only if it is done on a strategic level. Being a whiner is not usually helpful, as no one wants to reward a baby a million dollars. (SIDE NOTE: Have any whiners ever won the game? I guess Jenna in the Amazon, maybe Aras a bit in Panama, Todd in China but they never were at this level and all could be grateful as well). However, if you are Pete and your goal is to get Mike out of the game, complaining about the deal that was made might be a good decision, even if you think it was a good one.

This would be dependent on the rest of the tribe’s reaction, but if you saw that they didn’t like it, why not throw Mike under the bus? Make him take the downfall for his decisions. Heck, if I was Pete (knowing how he’s already playing the game), I might try to get rid of some of the rice making his decision look even worse. Unfortunately, I don’t think either of the three were doing this.

The person who might have been leaning this way was Lisa. It was hard to understand what she meant in her confessional responding to the situation, but it seemed to hint that she would react however everyone else was reacting. If you can get away with this, then I like this move.

Malcolm seemed to think it was a good decision, but played it up as if he was just trying “to be positive”. Again, go with the flow. I never thought Malcolm would be the positive, humble one. After dominating the 2nd half of the challenge, he acted very humble at what he had done and really just seems grateful to be there. His pregame interviews made him look like a snarky, cocky, villainous type player, could he be our hero? It certainly seems that way so far.

Mike Skupin is getting the weirdest edit. He hasn’t gotten a confessional in several episode, yet has been the center of attention in nearly every one. Notice how 4 or 5 others talked about him and his decision, but we never saw him actually explain what happened! This is strange for being a famous returning player who is certainly a leader type. Either he sucks in confessionals or something weird happens with him. I can’t quite get my finger on the pulse.

Jeff Kent, Future Survivor Hall of Famer? 

On the other side of things, Jeff Kent is playing a great game! Getting rid of Katie was the right move in this scenario. She would’ve been successful post-merge and wouldn’t do anything to advance his game. Keeping Penner has several positives to it: he will be a big target come the merge, he has the social skills to get in with others, but doesn’t have enough that he can turn against Jeff or Carter, and he has an idol that could be used in a team effort.

Keeping Denise helps more than it hurts, because either she flips Malcolm to their side or joins the other side, which wouldn’t matter anyway.

And obviously he wants to keep Carter who is his inferior counterpart. I think in Survivor if you can find someone like this, you are golden. You know they will never turn against you, they will always inform you of things, and you can beat them in the end! I like their relationship (though Carter might blow things if he ever repeats the “who do you want? Katie or Penner?” mistake)

Next Week

MINI SPOILER BELOW about next week from a preview that was recently released.

So a preview has been released that the merge will indeed happen next week. Good on Survivor as there was too big of a risk to lose somebody important before the merge, which is usually the best episode of the season.

This year’s merge brings along an excitement that most don’t have! There are so many things that could happen and so many levels of alliances.

Tandang becomes the first tribe to never attend a tribal council prior to the merge and will have to sort out their tribe lines. This will be complicated by the fact that they will have to do it with 4 other people added into the mix. Not only this, but 2 out of the 11 voters are potential wild cards with few allegiances other than themselves.

Keeping Track of the Alliances

There is an alliance of 5 (Pete, Abi, Artis, Lisa, Malcolm)

One of 4 (Pete, Abi, Artis, Lisa)

One of 3 (Pete, Abi, Artis)

One of 7 (potentially all of Tandang)

One of 4 (the original: Skupin, RC, Abi, Pete)

One of 2 (RC, Skupin)

Another of 2 (Denise, Malcolm)

One of 4 (Carter, Jeff, Penner, Denise)

One of 3 (Carter, Jeff, Penner)

Another of 3 (Carter, Jeff, Denise)

And many more to come! It looks like Malcolm and Lisa are going to try to throw something together as well.

I won’t even try to predict or say what I think is best to do in this scenario because there are so many options and it is hard to know what is actually viable and what is not. Oh and did I mention that there will be 3 Hidden Immunity Idols going into this Tribal Council? For the first time ever! Crazy stuff.

Player of the week: Jeff Kent. He made a good decision, has a loyal partner in Carter, has Penner where he wants him, and Denise possibly with him. He is running things and seems like a solid player.

Winner power rankings:

11. Artis-The only things we’ve seen from you have been bad.

10. Abi-Maria-There’s no way, right?

9.Carter finally is getting some air time, but I don’t think he has what it takes strategically or socially. His physical game hasn’t seemed to been that great either, at least not great enough to win.

8. Pete-You’re just too unlikable!

7. Skupin-Don’t know what to make of him.

6. Penner-I can’t see him holding on. The idol helps, but it would take a miracle.

5. RC moves up this week, because she was edited in a more positive light. I just can’t help but think that Malcolm, Lisa, and Denise will join with RC and Skupin to make a move.

4. Lisa-If she plays her cards right she could do this.

3. Jeff-Will likely be knocked out early merge, but if any original Kalabaw was gonna win it would be him right?

2. Denise-Now that the merge has come she almost passed Malcolm, but can’t risk a Pagonging knocking her out.

1. Malcolm seems better and better every week. He’s gotta have a downfall right?

 

Survivor Philippines Episode 5

On this week’s episode the Matsing tribe was split apart, Malcolm joining Tandang and Denise joining Kalabaw. Kalabaw lost two consecutive challenges, voting out Dawson and losing Dana to sickness (quitness).

The End of Matsing

To start the episode, we see Malcolm and Denise frantically searching for the idol, knowing that this is the best way to gain leverage going forward in the game. Good on their part recognizing that this is something that they need; a less intuitive player might have ignored this completely. And good job Denise in predicting exactly what would happen, it shows that basic Survivor knowledge can be helpful.

Malcolm did great in making sure as soon as the idea of where the idol could be popped into his head, that he was the one who found it and not Denise, sure it helps both of them to an extent, but it really helps Malcolm.

Kalabaw

Kalabaw really got screwed this week in not being able to pick up Malcolm. Denise is probably one of the best female competitors out there, but now Tandang’s best 3 competitors are close to being better than any of Kalabaw’s. Not to mention that they have RC who is probably the best female athlete out there. Kalabaw’s gonna have it tough the next few weeks.

Losing Dana this week not only was crushing to Kalabaw, but it hurt the episode overall. It sucked because seeing people quit/evacuated is very anti-climactic; there is none of that tribal council drama and it threw off the numbers!

With Denise joining Kalabaw, it would have made the girls have 4 and the men have 3. Denise may have been tempted to join with the women, then the men may have had to try to persuade Denise over with the idol or actually play the idol causing all sorts of drama.

Instead we got the Katie vs. Dawson edit, with Denise being invited to join the men. It didn’t really matter who went because they were both about equal in tribe status.

Dawson’s Terrible, but Fun Gameplay

According to post game interviews, Dawson had apparently told Jeff Kent that she knew who he was and then continued to tease him about it. In this case, it was a huge move by Jeff to pull off a blindside without getting found out. He deserves a lot of credit here.

Dawson on the other hand really blew it. While teasing Jeff about it was one of the funniest moments of the year, is there any better reason for him to get rid of you than this? Especially in a more secretive way… You’ve got to gain leverage on him slowly by going to Katie or Penner or Denise and trying to throw him under the bus. Terrible move Dawson (though she was really funny and I wish we could see more of that).

Pete’s Terrible and Not Fun Gameplay

Over at Tandang, Pete was busy making terrible moves as Malcolm’s attention was being fought over. Pete approached Malcolm and not only laid out the entire tribe’s dynamics, offered a spot in his alliance, but told him that he and Abi-Maria had the idol! Like Malcolm said, “knowledge is power” in Survivor and now Pete has nothing left to offer. Malcolm on the other hand just took it all in and can use that at any point he likes.

Pete’s goal at this point should be getting rid of Malcolm. Malcolm is a more likable version of him!!! A young, smart, good looking guy who has way more charisma and charm than you do. Keeping Malcolm around is exponentially dangerous each and every time Malcolm survives another vote! Plus, Malcolm has friends on the other tribe!

Even if you decide you want to keep Malcolm, your first move should be to try to buddy up with him, then invite him into an alliance. Make sure you are hanging out with him more than RC and Skupin are. When it comes time to go to an actual vote and you are still concerned about what Malcolm will do, then show him the idol. By doing this all so early Malcolm knows everything and is the most powerful person in the game!

Thoughts on all the Rest

RC really needs to pick herself up. It’s so disappointing to see herself giving up without even having been to 1 tribal council!

Skupin has gotten a lot less airtime lately, it makes me really nervous as to how far he will go.

Could Penner and Jeff really pull this off? They are looking really solid. I don’t think it will happen, especially now that they are down in the numbers, but they are looking strong.

I hope that Malcolm and Denise both make the merge and join back together and then flip back and forth until the finals. If that were to happen, that would make this season a top 10 of all time.

When Will they Merge?

Speaking of the merge, could it happen next week? It seems way too early, but 5 of the last 6 seasons merged at 12 people. The only one that didn’t was Heroes vs. Villains which began the jury at 12 but didn’t merge until 10. That’s probably what will happen here. Crazy to think that the jury could be starting next episode. But hey, maybe they’ll do a final 2 this season! (Here’s hoping…)

Supposedly something crazy and unprecedented is supposed to happen next week. It looks like it is at a challenge. I really have no idea what it is.

Next week I think Katie is in big trouble if Kalabaw loses and I think Tandang will all come down to Malcolm’s choice, which I really don’t know where he will go. I want him to join a Skupin, RC, and Lisa alliance, but I don’t know how plausible that is.

Who Can Still Win This?

As far as who will win, I’ve brought it down to 7 people who I think can win based on editing and place in the game. From least to greatest here they are:

7. RC-I think she’s still got a shot, but it’s going down.

6. Skupin-Not lookin’ good.

5. Jeff Kent-He’s looking good, but being down in the numbers hurts.

4. Lisa-I like her more every week. She’s right in the middle of a divided tribe. Once the merge hits she will last because she’s not a physical threat. If she doesn’t break down again, she’s got it. I don’t know if she has to make a big move if she actually is capable of that.

3. Penner-He’s got an idol, he knows the game, he’s at the head of his tribe.

2. Denise-She’s got a lot of options and won’t be obvious to get rid of. The thing that scares me is if the merge is at 10 and Kalabaw loses 2 in a row.

1. Malcolm-He’s got the power, he’s got an idol, he’s got numbers all over the place, he’s charismatic. He’s hard to put number 1, because he seems like someone who is an obvious threat, but I can’t discount him now!

(Pete and Abi-Maria could do well, but I just don’t think they can win. Carter, Katie, and Artis haven’t been shown enough for me to consider them winners).

Player of the week: Malcolm.

We got what we wanted this week, but because Dana left the game, it was a kind of boring episode. I think the same will happen if Kalabaw loses again. If Tandang loses though, watch out, here come the fireworks!!!