Survivor San Juan del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 8

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #2 in the rankings Josh, went home.

10. Alec (last week: 11th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 10th Total: 5 points)

alec

Alec had a week that made him look even worse than the week’s prior, plus his alliance lost the numbers.

9. Wes (last week: 9th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 9th Total: 7 points)

wes

Wes is not that good at Survivor, what do you know. He’s a goner.

8. Reed (last week: 10th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 8th Total: 11 points)

reed

Reed is in the worst spot right now and has no chance of winning, but I see him as one of the most capable players this season, speaks more to the talent this season than to Reed.

7. Keith (last week: 7th) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 6rd Total: 11 points)

keith

Keith’s good edit took a turn this week and now his chances fall to the 1% range. Even his idol looks to be flushed this week.

6. Baylor (last week: 8th) (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 7th Total: 16 points)

baylor

Baylor has got to be the third place finisher, she has the big edit but one that shows that nobody really likes her.

5. Jaclyn (last week: 6th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 5th Total: 18 points)

jaclyn

If only Jaclyn had been shown in the first few episodes, she might be an actual contender, instead we know that she can’t win. She also seems like a capable player and her role in the game will likely be important (as she told us it was), but I don’t see her going anywhere.

4. Jon (last week: 3rd) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 2nd Total: 19 points)

jon

I think we’ve seen too much dumb Jon for him to win and he will be a huge threat in a couple weeks (perhaps even more than Jeremy), but we’ve got a consistent longterm edit from him throughout and for San Juan del Sur that’s probably all you’re going to need.

3. Missy (last week: 4th) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 3rd Total: 25 points)

missy

I don’t think she is going to win, but she hasn’t done anything to eliminate herself completely and is in a pretty good spot with a lot of influence so she remains a top contender.

2. Natalie (last week: 5th) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 4th Total: 26 points)

natalie

Maybe Natalie is the Denise of this season with Jeremy as the Malcolm. Could she vote him out at final four and go into an easy finals against Baylor and Jaclyn? Denise also disappeared for a bit in the post-merge… I’m not sure about this theory, but if Natalie doesn’t get more soon, I don’t know if she will be the one.

1. Jeremy (last week: 1st) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 1st Total: 27 points)

jeremy

He is the obvious frontrunner and he seems to have enough room to maneuver himself to the finals with a loyal ally (Natalie) and two pairs who should probably go after one another (Jon/Jaclyn and Missy/Baylor). He can likely beat them all in the end too. Unless someone else pops up soon I just don’t see him losing (though let’s be real someone else will probably win and make this season even more terrible. Let’s rank the contestants in order of redeeming this season with a win 10. Alec 9. Wes 8. Baylor 7. Missy 6. Jon 5. Reed 4. Jaclyn 3. Natalie 2. Jeremy 1. Keith)

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 7

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #11 in the rankings Julie, went home.

11. Alec (last week: 10th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 11th Total: 4 points)

alec

Alec didn’t improve any, he’s an outer member of Josh’s alliance which is my prediction to be the one that falls.

10. Reed (last week: 10th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 10th Total: 9 points)

reed

Even if Josh is successful there is no way Reed wins, because the edit is Josh-centric.

9. Wes (last week: 9th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 9th Total: 16 points)

wes

Keith forgot your birthday just like we are forgetting that you are in this game.

8. Baylor (last week: 4th) (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 7th Total: 16 points)

baylor

I thought her prominent edit was gonna lead to her being a contender, but now I think it leads to her being a losing finalist.

7. Keith (last week: 8th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 3rd Total: 19 points)

keith

I actually think Keith has a prominent role to play–his edit is making him looking like someone to watch, but right now he looks to be stuck in a subpar position.

6. Jaclyn (last week: 7th) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 8th Total: 21 points)

jaclyn

Maybe the previewed conflict between her and Jon will amount to something, but I think it’s a false alarm and that she and Jon will join the Jeremy/Natalie/Missy/Baylor foursome.

5. Natalie (last week: 1st) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 5th Total: 21 points)

natalie

Her silence at the merge is frightening. My new theory is that she and Jeremy advance to the end and she ends up either getting 4th or 2nd place with Jon going 7th; Missy and Keith going out 6th or 5th; and Jaclyn, Natalie, Jeremy, and Baylor making up the final four, with Baylor getting a guaranteed 3rd and Jeremy winning.

4. Missy (last week: 2nd) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 4th Total: 21 points)

missy

It was impossible for me to tell whether her long speech about Baylor was meant to be seen as a positive or negative. People have read it both ways and I think it could go either way. It seemed more negative to me, but she is someone who should hang around and does have some skills.

3. Jon (last week: 3rd) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 5th Total: 24 points)

jon

The swing vote is an important position to be in, but I don’t think Jon has the tact to make it go his way. Look for him to go out around 7th.

2. Josh (last week: 5th) (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 2nd Total: 24 points)

josh

He is rated so high because if by chance he can convince Jon and Jaclyn to get rid of Jeremy he seems all but guaranteed to win. We’re not betting on this though, I think Jeremy takes it.

1. Jeremy (last week: 6th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 1st Total: 24 points)

jeremy

Jeremy takes over the top spot, there is still a lot of doubt as to whether he will be the sole Survivor, but right now it looks like he will at least be in position to lead his group there.

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 6

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #13 in the rankings Dale, went home.

12. Alec (last week: 11th) (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 9th Total: 8 points)

alec

The best sign for Alec would be if he flipped to Jeremy and Natalie, forming a formidable singles alliance that could potentially rise up at the right moment. If he sticks with Josh and Reed, he is a physical threat on a sinking ship.

11. Julie (last week: 10th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 12th Total: 9 points)

julie

The quitter edit in a season that has been hinted at having a quitter? Not good for Julie, plus the preview shows her doing something that will highly affect her position. Her best move would be to stay quiet as the third behind Natalie and Jeremy and flip with them at the right moment. Of course this leads her into a 3rd wheel sort of position, so, sorry Julie you’re out of luck.

10. Reed (last week: 12th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 11th Total: 10 points)

reed

Reed has gotten more screen time, but this is likely leading to his (and maybe Josh’s) downfall. If he and Josh were to make it to the end you’d think we’d see something from him, but it’s likely that he goes soon.

9. Wes (last week: 4th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 10th Total: 14 points)

wes

Wes will likely stick with Josh and therefore is doomed. I don’t think he is a bad player, but his story is.

8. Keith (last week: 2nd) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 6th Total: 18 points)

keith

Keith is in an interesting position, because he and Wes are the only couple to not have a chance to interact. Will they join Jon/Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor as Keith has the last couple votes? Or will he be swayed over to Josh/Reed/Alec by Wes? Or could they actually be split up? Even more interesting will be what happens with his idol which could throw a whole lot more into a loop. I like it when someone like Keith has an idol, someone who is not in charge, and really could do anything with it–let’s hope it turns out more like Penner having it than Ralph.

7. Jaclyn (last week: 8th) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 8th Total: 22 points)

jaclyn

Jaclyn has worked her way into a good spot at the merge and though she will be a big number going forward, she is still not a main consideration for the winner.

6. Jeremy (last week: 6th) (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 2nd Total: 22 points)

jeremy

Last week built upon that this season was edging toward a Jeremy vs. Josh battle and the merge (or soon thereafter) seems to be the place it will happen. Previously Josh had the advantage, but with Natalie, Jeremy could be the one to move forward. He seems like a big threat to be taken out at any moment, but he could do it.

5. Josh (last week: 1st) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 7th Total: 23 points)

josh

I still think he’s the best player, at least of the obvious ones. I look forward to seeing him play again, but for now he seems poised to be the target of the merge. The numbers and the edit don’t seem to be going his way as far as allies go and unless it’s Reed that goes and Josh miraculously gets by on a couple of votes, his odds are reducing.

4. Baylor (last week: 5th) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 5th Total: 25 points)

baylor

I’ve given up on Baylor being a good player, but I do think she is an important character and will be there a while. She and Missy could be the duo everything hinges on and maybe her more positive edit over her mother means that she will outlast her.

3. Jon (last week: 3rd) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 4th Total: 25 points)

jon

A prime contender for the winner position though I am now inclined to believe (like a lot of people) that he and Jaclyn will be taken out in the middle of the game leading into a Natalie, Jeremy, Baylor, Missy alliance with one or two stragglers.

2. Missy (last week: 9th) (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 3rd Total: 29 points)

missy

She’s going to be pivotal going into the merge, likely getting Natalie on her side who will bring Jeremy and Julie giving them 7 votes when combined with Jon and Jaclyn. If she can maneuver this she’s got a good shot especially against her daughter who others seem not to like. Her sort of negative opening edit does throw suspicion onto whether she can win.

1. Natalie (last week: 7th) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 1st Total: 29 points)

natalie

We saw good stuff out of her this week and while last week it looked like her and Jeremy were in a bad spot, this week could be their week to take control. Natalie is primed with all sorts of relationships all over the place and according to the rankings is primed to pull this off.

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 4

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #15 in the rankings, Drew, went home.

NOTE: This week’s rankings in Position were based in the post-swap tribe dynamic.

Sorry I didn’t do a write-up, I got lazy and waited too long to do this.

14. Reed (last week: 9th) (Position: 13th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 14th Total: 9 points)

reed

13. Dale (last week: 13th) (Position: 14th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 11th Total: 9 points)

dale

12. Alec (last week: 10th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 12th Total: 15 points)

alec

11. Jaclyn (last week: 14th) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 14th, Edit: 13th Total: 16 points)

jaclyn

10. Jon (last week: 12th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 9th Total: 16 points)

jon

9. Keith (last week: 7th) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 7th Total: 20 points)

keith

8. Wes (last week: 5th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 10th Total: 21 points)

wes

7. Jeremy (last week: 2nd) (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 3rd Total: 24 points)

jeremy

6. Kelly (last week: 8th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 7th Total: 27 points)

kelly

5. Natalie (last week: 6th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 4th Total: 28 points)

natalie

4. Julie (last week: 11th) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 8th Total: 29 points)

julie

3. Josh (last week: 1st) (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 2nd Total: 31 points)

josh

2. Missy (last week: 4th) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 5th Total: 34 points)

missy

1. Baylor (last week: 3rd) (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 1st Total: 36 points)

baylor

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 3

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #13 in the rankings, John, went home.

15. Drew (last week: 15th) (Position: 14th , Capabilities: 15th, Edit: 15th Total: 4 points)

drew

The cocky, lazy, doofus edit doesn’t serve him, plus he has been pointed out by Jeremy as someone he wants to get rid of.

14. Jaclyn (last week: 16th) (Position: 13th , Capabilities: 14th, Edit: 14th Total: 7 points)

jaclyn

Moves up a spot because she is just about reaching the point where nobody will want to get rid of her, however her lack of air time gives her no chance of winning.

13. Dale (last week: 9th) (Position: 15th , Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 10th Total: 13 points )

dale

Being on the outs and the weakest in a losing tribe has shot Dale down to the bottom. Surviving until a swap could do him some good, but I don’t think he has what it takes.

12. Jon (last week: 14th) (Position: 11th , Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 8th Total: 20 points)

jon

Not much from him this week, we need to see his tribe go to tribal to see where he really stands, but it seems like it’s outside the main alliance.

11. Julie (last week: 12th) (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 9th Total: 20 points)

julie

Hard to say how much Julie hurts or benefits from John leaving. Any animosity toward her could be nullified by his exit, but it may already be too late for her.

10. Alec (last week: 5th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 12th Total: 22 points)

alec

Drops this week because of the shattering of the guys’ alliance – which is perfectly suited to help someone like him. Add to this that he did not actually want to vote Rocker out and was shown as being outside the main decision making process and I am thinking Alec is less and less capable of winning.

9. Reed (last week: 10th) (Position: 7th , Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 13th Total: 24 points)

reed

Apparently the editors don’t know where to put you in the show and neither do I! He is ranked high in the capability department only because nobody is really playing all that well.

8. Kelly (last week: 6th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 11th Total: 24 points)

kelly

I have a feeling Dale is gonna go and Kelly will start to rise as a part of Jeremy’s alliance and a character in this game, but as for now she’s got nothing.

7. Keith (last week: 7th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 4th Total: 25 points)

keith

There’s been a couple of hints of dissension between he and Jeremy, add to it his bonding with Josh and Keith is either in a prime position to flip or be voted out soon.

6. Natalie (last week: 4th) (Position: 3rd , Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 6th Total: 26 points)

natalie

Her blowing up all over John last week was not the kind of thing you want to see out of a Survivor player, but her edit and relationships with her tribe are both strong, so she’s got a shot.

5. Wes (last week: 11th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 7th Total: 27 points)

wes

Wes probably impressed me the most this week, although his move probably put him in a worse position he seemed very socially capable. As I’ll reinforce with Josh later, I’d much rather take someone with strong social skills who makes a few strategic mistakes than a mastermind who can’t form relationships. Wes built those bonds and showed himself to be thinking by sending the person he wanted to Exile with his dad.

4. Missy (last week: 8th) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 5th Total: 33 points)

missy

The comforter to the outsider while remaining an insider is always a good spot. We’ve gotten a steady dose of Missy, which is especially good considering her daughter has also been prominent.

3. Baylor (last week: 3rd) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 1st Total: 34 points)

baylor

She’s still not in a great position, but the editors have been favorable to her – showing her as someone on the bottom who recognizes this and works their way into a good position (others who were shown like this recently are Ciera or Spencer which bodes well for her). If she can make a swap or merge she is golden for a while.

2. Jeremy (last week: 1st) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 3rd Total: 41 points)

jeremy

Jeremy falls from the number one spot for the first time due to the harshness of his reactions to Rocker. It’s true that he was somewhat able to get Rocker voted out without even being on the tribe, but he will definitely turn into an obvious threat at some point.

1. Josh (last week: 2nd) (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 2nd Total: 41 points)

josh

Sure Josh may be relying too heavily on his alliance with Baylor (all of his votes so far have been affected by it) but we all complained so heavily the last two weeks about this too and this week Josh was said to be the most trusted person in the tribe by both John and Wes. When Josh decides to go after John everyone goes along with it right away. Josh is socially killing it. His moves may not be 100% perfect at this point (neither were Tony’s) but given some time – with a social game like this – Josh is playing very well.

Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

Post-Episode 2

These rankings are done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).

The three categories:

Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?

Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.

Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.

The Rankings:

Last week #13 in the rankings, Val, went home.

16. Jaclyn (last week: 17th) (Position: 16th, Capabilities: 15th, Edit: 16th Total: 4 points )

jaclyn

Sorry Jaclyn what we have seen from you hasn’t been great and the editors aren’t showing us much!

15. Drew (last week: 16th) (Position: 15th, Capabilities: 14th, Edit:  15th Total: 7 points)

drew

You are continually thrown under the bus by the editors and Jeremy for some reason has his targets set on you with the most social capacity.

14. Jon (last week: 10th) (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 10th Total: 16 points )

jon

This may be where people disagree with me most, but I really felt as if he was supposed to look stupid rather than smart when he lost the flint. He may have won against Rocker, but Julie was given more than he was for doing so. Add to it that he seems on the bottom and it’s not a good week for him.

13. John (last week: 11th) (Position: 3rd , Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 14th Total: 18 points )

rocker

Things are continuing to spiral out of control for the controversial ex-pitcher, but he still has a spot within the majority, is conceivably strong in challenges, and has that Hidden Immunity Idol. Without the idol he might be in last place, but with echoes of so many people wanting to take him to the end, 13th is where he ends up.

12. Julie (last week: 15th) (Position: 14th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 7th Total: 20 points)

julie

She is rising up the rankings one positive confessional at a time, what hurts her is that Jeremy might consider going after her because of her bf’s broken deal with him. Need to see more from her.

11. Wes (last week: 14th) (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 13th  Total: 21 points)

wes

Was made to look dumb from the beginning, getting few confessionals here doesn’t help, but he is in the majority for now.

10. Reed (last week: 12th) (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 11th Total: 23 points)

reed

Can’t really rate him until his tribe goes to tribal, his boyfriend is eating up all of his edit for now.

9. Dale (last week: 5th) (Position: 13th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 5th Total: 25 points)

dale

He seemed really high strung this episode which is never the sign of a good Survivor player. Add to it that he continually looks weaker in a losing tribe and it could hurt. The edit has been solid though.

8. Missy (last week: 9th) (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 9th Total: 27 points)

missy

Her daughter is the stronger player and winner candidate, but the edit seems to tie them together, so Missy could do something. One of those middle players for the winning tribe.

7. Keith (last week: 4th) (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 9th Total: 29 points)

keith

Not much for him on the 2nd episode, maybe he lasts a long while, but as a potential 4th or 5th placer.

6. Kelly (last week: 8th) (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 8th Total: 30 points)

kelly

Goes up by default, consistently shown in a slightly positive context. I still believe that she can be a solid player, but all of that is yet to be proven.

5. Alec (last week: 7th) (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 12th Total: 31 points)

alec

Being athletic and keeping your mouth shut may lead to Alec being a potential contender, he’s only 5th because there is really NO ONE ELSE!

4. Natalie (last week: 6th) (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 3rd Total: 32 points)

natalie

Her twinnie leaving perhaps gave her a more positive edit, but we’ll take it at this point. Everything she has done has been positive, though if she was the winner you’d have to think she would be shown a bit more.

3. Baylor (last week: 3rd) (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 4th Total: 33 points)

baylor

The youngin’ stays in the spotlight for a 2nd episode which continues to make me think that there is something to her. She is a capable person on a tribe with John Rocker, so she could last.

2. Josh (last week: 2nd) (Position: 2nd, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 2nd Total: 45 points)

josh

I don’t think Josh is a great player, but the editors are making him out to be the focal point of his tribe. I suppose he could explain away his decisions and make everything right, it’s hard to judge.

1. Jeremy (last week: 1st) (Position:1st , Capabilities: 1st, Edit: 1st Total: 48 points)

jeremy

Jeremy sweeps this week in a season full of nonchalant characters. Nothing is really happening and Jeremy has been shown to be smart, anti-John Rocker, and to have a heart, so he’s got to be number 1, at least amongst this crowd.

 

Pre-Season Survivor San Juan Del Sur Rankings

I’m going to try to write a weekly ranking on the cast of Survivor this season. It will feature a BCS style system with three different categories combining to give a number of the person most likely to win the game each week. Those three categories will be: Current Position in the Game, Edit, and Capability – these will be further explained later.

For now a pre-game ranking based in who I think has the best chance of winning.

18. John

C’mon there is no way John Rocker wins Survivor, there is absolutely no way.

17. Julie

Upon watching John and Julie’s videos they seem a lot better than I would have imagined, but again, someone who is attached to John Rocker who comes in with a background of being a sun tan booth owner just doesn’t seem like someone who can win Survivor.

16. Drew

This dude feels oblivious to the way people will perceive him. In his interviews he continuously talked over his brother while saying that his brother was the one whose mouth would get him in trouble. Add to it that he is a young male with another young male out there and I think his shot is miniscule.

15. Jaclyn

I don’t think she really understands the game, though out of everyone it is hardest to get a good read on Jon and Jaclyn.

14. Keith

Age and cultural factors will likely keep the firefighter out of the loop. Plus it doesn’t really seem like he could develop a good grip of the game.

13. Wes

He is a fan and is young which gives him an advantage over his father, but Wes feels like a guy who will play his cards too loose and this will cause him to make mistakes.

12. Missy

She seems plenty likable and could find routes in with the young ones, but someone who has been divorced 3 times doesn’t seem like a good bet.

11. Natalie

The twins actually seem far more likable than everybody was complaining about prior to the season, having not seen their seasons of the Amazing Race. Having said that I don’t think either is poised to win the game. But if they aren’t targeted for being twins or being semi-famous I see either as being capable of making it to the 8 or 9 spot. They’re athletic and they know how reality tv works, so middle game seems like their best positioning.

10. Nadiya

I don’t know the difference between them. Though I think Nadiya is on the better tribe.

9. Baylor

Could she Ciera her way into a chance of winning? I think so, as long as she can work her way into an alliance no one is going to be gunning for her come merge time.

8. Jon

I am not super high on him, but something about him seems like he at least has the potential to run the entire game.

7. Alec

The more timid of the brothers feels like he could be a solid person to align with. Add to this the fact that his brother seems like someone who could go out early helps Alec’s chances immensely. Though there is part of me that thinks that Alec could go under someone’s wing and just get completely manipulated.

6. Josh

The last 6 are 3 of the pairs that I just like so much more than the others. I think Josh has a much better chance if Reed gets voted out early (same for Reed). He just seems like the more likely of the 2, to get out early.

5. Val

This is the year of the cop (on reality tv at least, certainly not in real life) and Val seems very likable, smart, and fit. For some reason the way she talked put me off just a little bit and on the island this will likely only be heightened, so we’ll see.

4. Dale

I know I probably shouldn’t be putting the oldest contestant this high up, but really I liked this guy so much. Add to the fact that he recognized the twins and he is a big fan and I think he has a shot as long as he can get past those first few weeks.

3. Reed

The superfan of the two, I think Reed has enough charm, knowledge of Survivor, and athleticism to really work himself into the group and perhaps take himself to the top.

2. Jeremy

Jeremy is very very likable. He seems like the kind of guy that you just want to be friends with. Add to this that he seems like one of the most prepared contestants out there and is athletic and smart and it is hard not to pick him as a winner. I could see him getting a little over-eager out there, but if he can contain himself, especially for the first few votes, he is a huge threat.

1. Kelly

There is a bell that rings in my head every once in a while when watching the pregame Survivor interviews – I will call this the Kim Spradlin effect. I predicted Kim to win her season, because I was drawn to just how solid of a person she seemed to be (Full disclosure: I also had this feeling somewhat about Tasha last year). Kelly gives me those same alarms. She seems to be very mature (28 is at least close to the same age as Kim was), she grew up on a farm but now lives in the city – something that will hopefully help her relate to a diverse crowd, and she seems capable of competing. If she can get in good with a few people on her tribe, she has the ability to adapt to any situation after that. I’m not saying she will have the strategic capability of Kim, but she’s got a shot.